﻿ 河北省工业主导产业优化研究
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 北京化工大学学报(自然科学版)  2017, Vol. 44 Issue (6): 111-117  DOI: 10.13543/j.bhxbzr.2017.06.018 0

引用本文

LIU XueZhi, SUN Xin, ZHU QianKun, SHANG YueTong. Optimization of the leading industries in hebei province[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology (Natural Science), 2017, 44(6): 111-117. DOI: 10.13543/j.bhxbzr.2017.06.018.

文章历史

Optimization of the leading industries in Hebei province
LIU XueZhi , SUN Xin , ZHU QianKun , SHANG YueTong
School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract: According to the current policies in China and the present state of the industrial development of Hebei province, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for the leading industries in Hebei province. Factor analysis and principal component analysis methods are employed to carry out qualitative evaluation and quantitative evaluation, and determine the comprehensive score of the 39 industries and their ranking. Based on this analysis, suggestions for the optimization of the development of the leading industries in Hebei province are proposed.
Key words: integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei    prime mover industry    principal component analysis    factor analysis method

1 主导产业评价指标体系构建

(1) 产品销售率(经济效益类)(X1)

 $C=\frac{A}{B}$ (1)

(2) 区位商(比较优势类)(X2)

 ${{L}_{ij}}=\frac{{{Q}_{ij}}/{{Q}_{j}}}{{{Q}_{i}}/Q}$ (2)

(3) 产业规模(产业规模类)(X3)

 $D=\frac{E}{F}$ (3)

(4) 创新度(创新能力类)(X4)

 $H=\frac{L}{O}$ (4)

(5) 销售产值占比(产业竞争力类)(X5)

 $K=\frac{P}{N}$ (5)

2 模型分析检验及计算

2.1 因子分析法原理

 \left\{ \begin{align} &{{X}_{1}}={{a}_{11}}{{F}_{1}}+{{a}_{12}}{{F}_{2}}+\ldots +{{a}_{1p}}{{F}_{p}}+{{\varepsilon }_{1}} \\ &{{X}_{2}}={{a}_{21}}{{F}_{1}}+{{a}_{22}}{{F}_{2}}+\ldots +{{a}_{2p}}{{F}_{p}}+{{\varepsilon }_{2}} \\ &\ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ldots \\ &{{X}_{n}}={{a}_{n1}}{{F}_{1}}+{{a}_{n2}}{{F}_{2}}+\ldots +{{a}_{np}}{{F}_{p}}+{{\varepsilon }_{n}} \\ \end{align} \right.~ (6)

2.2 数据来源

2.3 因子分析适度检验

2.4 公共因子的提取

2.5 主因子的变量组合

3 行业排名及结果分析 3.1 行业综合得分及排名

 $C=\frac{{{F}_{1}}\sqrt{{{M}_{1}}}{{K}_{1}}+{{F}_{2}}\sqrt{{{M}_{2}}}{{K}_{2}}}{{{K}_{1}}+{{K}_{2}}}$ (7)

3.2 结果分析

4 结论

(1) 目前河北省的主导产业依然是传统的重化工业。河北省多年来传统的主导产业由于行业技术比较成熟，技术门槛相对较低，并借助当地铁矿石等资源优势发展起来，无论是经济效益、产业规模还是比较优势都有着较强的竞争力，然而这些产业往往存在着高污染、高能耗、低技术、低效率的问题。因此河北省在贯彻京津冀一体化战略时，要以环保为抓手淘汰落后产能，并通过提高产品附加值等方式进行产业优化。

(2) 新兴主导产业具有一定基础。新兴产业无论基于发展趋势还是市场导向，相比传统产业污染物排放低、技术水平高、带动力强，都应属于河北省重点发展的新兴主导产业。河北省应积极借助京津创新链、产业链以及园区链的技术辐射，推进传统产业转型提升工程、新兴产业引领壮大工程，真正实现传统产业与新兴产业双轮驱动的发展格局。

(3) 借助京津翼一体化发展机遇，适度限制部分产业的发展速度与规模。河北省应以雄安新区的设立作为产业结构调整和优化的重大机遇，在京津冀一体化协同发展的背景下担负起疏解北京非首都功能的重任，进行全面产业结构的调整。如对一些高耗能高污染产业严格贯彻国家和省市的环保标准，适度控制这些产业的发展规模也是优化河北产业结构的一项重要内容。本文对于主导产业的分析主要采用了因子分析法，今后的研究中可以进行更多方法的结果比较分析，以便进一步增加排序结果的客观性。

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